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Abstract Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model outputs against observed measurements and multiple models would help to produce more robust biodiversity predictions. We propose an approach that integrates biodiversity models and emerging remote sensing and in-situ data streams to evaluate and reduce uncertainty with the goal of improving policy-relevant biodiversity predictions. In this article, we describe a multivariate approach to directly and indirectly evaluate and constrain model uncertainty, demonstrate a proof of concept of this approach, embed the concept within the broader context of model evaluation and scenario analysis for conservation policy, and highlight lessons from other modeling communities. 

Abstract An intermediate-depth (1751 m) ice core was drilled at the South Pole between 2014 and 2016 using the newly designed US Intermediate Depth Drill. The South Pole ice core is the highest-resolution interior East Antarctic ice core record that extends into the glacial period. The methods used at the South Pole to handle and log the drilled ice, the procedures used to safely retrograde the ice back to the National Science Foundation Ice Core Facility (NSF-ICF), and the methods used to process and sample the ice at the NSF-ICF are described. The South Pole ice core exhibited minimal brittle ice, which was likely due to site characteristics and, to a lesser extent, to drill technology and core handling procedures. 

Abstract. The South Pole Ice Core (SPICEcore) was drilled in 2014–2016 to provide adetailed multi-proxy archive of paleoclimate conditions in East Antarcticaduring the Holocene and late Pleistocene. Interpretation of these recordsrequires an accurate depth–age relationship. Here, we present the SPICEcore (SP19) timescale for the age of the ice of SPICEcore. SP19 is synchronized to theWD2014 chronology from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide (WAIS Divide) icecore using stratigraphic matching of 251 volcanic events. These eventsindicate an age of 54 302±519 BP (years before 1950) at thebottom of SPICEcore. Annual layers identified in sodium and magnesium ionsto 11 341 BP were used to interpolate between stratigraphic volcanic tiepoints, yielding an annually resolved chronology through the Holocene.Estimated timescale uncertainty during the Holocene is less than 18 yearsrelative to WD2014, with the exception of the interval between 1800 to 3100BP when uncertainty estimates reach ±25 years due to widely spacedvolcanic tie points. Prior to the Holocene, uncertainties remain within 124 years relative to WD2014. Results show an average Holocene accumulation rateof 7.4 cm yr−1 (water equivalent). The time variability of accumulation rateis consistent with expectations for steady-state ice flow through the modernspatial pattern of accumulation rate. Time variations in nitrateconcentration, nitrate seasonal amplitude and δ15N of N2 in turn are as expected for the accumulation rate variations. The highlyvariable yet well-constrained Holocene accumulation history at the site canhelp improve scientific understanding of deposition-sensitive climateproxies such as δ15N of N2 and photolyzed chemicalcompounds.